Monday , 3rd March 2025

Time : 8 :15 AM IST

3rd March 

1 I could not write the insights for last one week as i was in travelling ,just one 1 week whole thing changed. 

    2 On Friday , Nifty was down by 420 points and closed at 22124. 

    3 Nifty fell nearly 4000 points from its all time high , midcap 100 and smallcap 100 fell by 21% and 25% respectively.

    4 The fall was mainly due to the concerns over tariffs by US president Donald Trump. 

    5 Trump says , tariffs on Mexico and Canada go live on March 4th and imposes an additional 10% tariff on china. 

    6 Mexico , Canada and china imposes retaliatory tariffs on US. 

    7 India’s GDP growth rate for Q3 has come at 6.2% vs 5.6% in Q2.

    8 GDP data looks good QoQ basis , last quarter 5.6% , but YoY basis it is far low 9.5% (oct – dec) 

    9 To attract FIIs India’s GDP has to grow at least 7.5%.

    10 FIIs are on selling spree and DIIs continue to buy, in cash market 

    11 On Friday, FIIs sold more than Rs11,500  crores and DIIs bought more than Rs 12000 crores, this was because of MSCI rebalancing.

    12 US markets ended in green on friday , all indices were up more than 1.3%.

    13 Asian markets are trading higher this morning 

    14 GIFT Nifty indicating a 80 point gap up opening for our markets.

    15 US 10 year bond yields are cooling off , trading around 4.2% from its recent highs of 4.8%.

    16 Dollar index peaked around 110 in mid January and now trading at 107.2 , declined more than 2%.

    17 emerging market currencies had recovered well during this period from their lows, but indian rupee is still down about 1.8% during this period.

    18 The FPIs outflows continues to keep our currency under pressure inspite of the fall in dollar index.

    19 the big question is whether the gap up sustains or not , even though gap up sustains FIIs come and sell , which drags our market. 

    20 Nifty is expected to take support around 22000 and resistance at 22500.