Market Insight, 18 December 2024

Wednesday, 18 Dec 2024

Time : 8:15 AM IST

Report:

Understanding Yesterday’s Market:

1. Nifty Performance:
   • Nifty fell by 332 points, closing at 24,336.
2. Market Trend:
   • The fall was a one-way decline, with the market starting to drop right from the opening bell.
3. Reasons for the Fall:
   • November EXIM Data: The trade deficit hit an all-time high.
   • New FPI Regulations: The new norms for FPIs likely triggered significant selling, with FIIs offloading equities worth ₹6,410 crores in the cash market.
4. Fed Policy Outcome:
   • The Fed policy outcome is expected today and will impact the markets tomorrow.
   • Markets are anticipating a 25 bps rate cut. However, any uncertainty regarding the cut could negatively affect US markets, which, in turn, would impact Indian markets.
5. Rupee Decline:
   • The rupee continues to weaken against the US dollar, currently at ₹84.9 per dollar, which is a negative signal for broader markets.
6. Technical Levels:
   • The Nifty closed below the crucial support level of 24,500, signaling short-term negativity.
7. Fed Rate Cut Impact:
   • If the US Fed cuts rates as expected, it would be a positive for markets, but the impact might not be significant.

Today’s Cues:

1. Global Markets:
   • US Markets: The Dow Jones fell by 0.6% ahead of the Fed meeting.
   • European Markets: Closed lower.
   • Asian Markets: Trading mixed.
2. GIFT Nifty:
   • GIFT Nifty indicates a 50-point negative start for Indian markets.
3. Key Levels:
   • Support:
     • 24,150, which is the recent low.
     • 24,315, the 20 DMA and a crucial level for markets to take support
   • Resistance:
     • 24,500, as per OI data, where call writers show confidence.